Number of COVID-19 hospitalisations averted by vaccination: Estimates for the Netherlands, January 6, 2021 through August 30, 2022

Abstract

Background: Vaccines against COVID-19 have proven effective in preventing COVID-19 hospitalisation. In this study, we aimed to quantify part of the public health impact of COVID-19 vaccination by estimating the number of averted hospitalisations. We present results from the beginning of the vaccination campaign (‘entire period’, January 6, 2021) and a subperiod starting at August 2, 2021 (‘subperiod’) when all adults had the opportunity to complete their primary series, both until August 30, 2022. Methods: Using calendar-time specific vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates and vaccine coverage (VC) by round (primary series, first booster and second booster) and the observed number of COVID-19 associated hospitalisations, we estimated the number of averted hospitalisations per age group for the two study periods. From January 25, 2022, when registration of the indication of hospitalisation started, hospitalisations not causally related to COVID-19 were excluded. Results: In the entire period, an estimated 98,170 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 96,123–99,928) hospitalisations were averted, of which 90,753 (95 % CI 88,790–92,531) were in the subperiod, representing 57.0 % and 67.9 % of all estimated hospital admissions. Estimated averted hospitalisations were lowest for 12–49-year-olds and highest for 70–79-year-olds. More admissions were averted in the Delta period (72.3 %) than in the Omicron period (63.4 %). Conclusion: COVID-19 vaccination prevented a large number of hospitalisations. Although the counterfactual of having had no vaccinations while maintaining the same public health measures is unrealistic, these findings underline the public health importance of the vaccination campaign to policy makers and the public.