On the Right Track? Unravelling the Determinants of Primary School Teachers’ Track Recommendations

Abstract

The questions guiding the research in this dissertation are (1) what aspects of student achievement, perceived student attributes, and student background characteristics teachers consider when formulating track recommendations and how do these aspects conjointly predict teachers’ track recommendations, and (2) whether these aspects are predictive of students’ secondary school performance. Track recommendations and students’ secondary school performance are primarily determined by students’ most recent achievement in primary education. Differences in achievement largely explain differences in track recommendations between students with different backgrounds. Bias related to students’ background characteristics are present but are generally small. Altogether, the findings of this dissertation suggest that educational inequalities are not primarily caused by the track allocation process but are present prior to and during primary education and are solidified by the way in which the Dutch secondary school system is organised. Due to early tracking, and the hierarchical and rigid system, the system offers few opportunities to reduce differences between students from different backgrounds. Although several policy changes have been made in the last decades, the achievement gap between students from different backgrounds persists. More drastic interventions than changes in the time schedule for administering the school leavers’ test or mandatory versus non-mandatory adjustments of the track recommendations are needed to effectively reduce educational inequalities before and after the transition from primary to secondary education, including postponing the selection moment by introducing heterogeneous lower secondary education.