Predicting Mortality Within 90 Days of First Intervention in Patients with Left-Sided Obstructive Colon Cancer

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Acute resection for left-sided obstructive colon carcinoma is thought to be associated with a higher mortality risk than a bridge-to-surgery approach using decompressing stoma or self-expandable metal stent, but prediction models are lacking. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine the influence of treatment strategy on mortality within 90 days from the first intervention in patients presenting with left-sided obstructive colon carcinoma. DESIGN: This was a national multicenter cohort study that used data from a prospective national audit. SETTINGS: The study was performed in 75 Dutch hospitals. PATIENTS: Patients were included if they underwent resection with curative intent for left-sided obstructive colon carcinoma between 2009 and 2016. INTERVENTIONS: First intervention was either acute resection, bridge to surgery with self-expandable metallic stent, or bridge to surgery with decompressing stoma. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome measure was 90-day mortality after the first intervention. Risk factors were identified using multivariable logistic analysis. Subsequently, a risk model was developed. RESULTS: In total, 2395 patients were included, with the first intervention consisting of acute resection in 1848 patients (77%), stoma as bridge to surgery in 332 patients (14%), and stent as bridge to surgery in 215 patients (9%). Overall, 152 patients (6.3%) died within 90 days from the first intervention. A decompressing stoma was independently associated with lower 90-day mortality risk (HR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.094-0.62). Other independent predictors for mortality were age, ASA classification, tumor location, and index levels of serum creatinine and C-reactive protein. The constructed risk model had an area under the curve of 0.84 (95% CI, 0.81-0.87). LIMITATIONS: Only patients who underwent surgical resection were included. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment strategy had a significant impact on 90-day mortality. A decompressing stoma considerably lowers the risk of mortality, especially in older and frail patients. The developed risk model needs further external validation. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/B975.