Predictive performance of multiple organ dysfunction in asphyxiated newborns treated with therapeutic hypothermia on 24-month outcome: a cohort study

Abstract

Background: Perinatal asphyxia may be followed by multiple organ dysfunction (MOD) and is often included in prognostication of the individual patient, but evidence of discriminating accuracy is lacking. The aim of this study was to assess whether MOD in asphyxiated neonates during therapeutic hypothermia (TH) predicts mortality or neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI) at 24 months of age and which peripartum variables are associated with the onset of MOD. Methods: A retrospective analysis of a prospective cohort study of asphyxiated newborns undergoing TH was performed. MOD was defined as dysfunction of the brain (encephalopathy) combined with two or more organ systems. Outcome was routinely assessed by standardised developmental testing at the age of 24 months. The predictive accuracy of MOD on the combined outcome and its components (death and NDI) was expressed as areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs). The associations of peripartum variables and development of MOD were expressed as ORs and their CIs. Results: 189 infants (median gestation 40 (range 36-42 weeks) with moderate to severe hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy were included. 47% developed MOD. The prediction of the combined 24-month outcome or its components showed AUROCs <0.70. Associated with MOD were pH at birth (OR 0.97, CI 0.95 to 0.99), lactate at birth (OR 1.09, CI 1.04 to 1.15), Base Excess (BE) at birth (OR 0.94, CI 0.90 to 0.99) and epinephrine administration during resuscitation (OR 2.09, CI 1.02 to 4.40). Conclusion: MOD has a low discriminating accuracy in predicting mortality or NDI at 24 months age and might not be useful for prognostication. Signs of acid-base disturbance and adrenalin use at birth are associated with the development of MOD.