Development of a Prediction Model for the Occurrence of Stenosis or Occlusion after Percutaneous Deep Venous Arterialization

Abstract

Percutaneous deep venous arterialization (pDVA) is a promising treatment option in patients with chronic limb-threatening ischemia. Stenosis and occlusions, which are the Achilles' heel of every revascularization procedure, can be treated when detected early. However, frequent monitoring after pDVA is required because when stenosis or occlusions develop is unknown. Therefore, patients currently need to visit the hospital every 2 weeks for surveillance, which can be burdensome. Accordingly, we aimed to develop a model that can predict future stenosis or occlusions in patients after pDVA to be able to create tailor-made follow-up protocols. The data set included 343 peak systolic velocity and 335 volume flow measurements of 23 patients. A stenosis or occlusion developed in 17 patients, and 6 patients remained lesion-free. A statistically significant increase in the risk of stenosis or occlusion was found when duplex ultrasound values decreased 20% within 1 month. The prediction model was also able to estimate a patient-specific risk of future stenosis or occlusions. This is promising for the possibility of reducing the frequency of follow-up visits for low-risk patients and increasing the frequency for high-risk patients. These observations are the starting point for individual surveillance programs in post-pDVA patients. Future studies with a larger cohort are necessary for validation of this model.