Controlling the pandemic during the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination rollout
Viana, João; van Dorp, Christiaan H.; Nunes, Ana; Gomes, Manuel C.; van Boven, Michiel; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E.; Veldhoen, Marc; Rozhnova, Ganna
(2021) Nature Communications, volume 12, issue 1, pp. 1 - 15
(Article)
Abstract
There is a consensus that mass vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 will ultimately end the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it is not clear when and which control measures can be relaxed during the rollout of vaccination programmes. We investigate relaxation scenarios using an age-structured transmission model that has been fitted to age-specific seroprevalence
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data, hospital admissions, and projected vaccination coverage for Portugal. Our analyses suggest that the pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities could lead to new pandemic waves, and that substantial control efforts prove necessary throughout 2021. Using knowledge on control measures introduced in 2020, we anticipate that relaxing measures completely or to the extent as in autumn 2020 could launch a wave starting in April 2021. Additional waves could be prevented altogether if measures are relaxed as in summer 2020 or in a step-wise manner throughout 2021. We discuss at which point the control of COVID-19 would be achieved for each scenario.
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Keywords: Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Basic Reproduction Number, COVID-19 Vaccines/therapeutic use, COVID-19/prevention & control, Calibration, Child, Child, Preschool, Communicable Disease Control/methods, Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data, Humans, Mass Vaccination/organization & administration, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Portugal/epidemiology, Vaccination Coverage, Young Adult, Journal Article, Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural, Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't, Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
ISSN: 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
Note: Funding Information: G.R., J.V., A.N., M.C.G. were supported by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) project reference 131_596787873, awarded to G.R. M.V. was supported by the European Union H2020 ERA project (No. 667824 - EXCELLtoINNOV). The contribution of C.H.v.D. was under the auspices of the US Department of Energy (contract number 89233218CNA000001) and supported by the National Institutes of Health (grant number R01-OD011095). MK acknowledges support from the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw) Grant no. 10430022010001. Publisher Copyright: © 2021, The Author(s).
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