Gebakken lucht – Identifying Illicit Financial Flows of Oil and Gas Corporations from Africa through the Netherlands

Abstract

‘Gebakken lucht’ is a Dutch expression that literally means “baked air”, proverbially referring to something that appears like quite something, while it is in fact nothing. Oil and gas corporations that delve valuable resources in Africa often have offices in the Netherlands or similar countries with large amounts of money flowing through and little to no real activity. These money flows without underlying substance can be seen as ‘gebakken lucht’ and are classified as illicit financial flows by UNCTAD. This article shows how one could monitor these immense but hidden illicit financial flows which, when retrieved, would make Africa almost debt-free. We show how red flag indicators can reveal the risk of money laundering, tax evasion, or tax avoidance. We identify 61 different red flags and apply them to five oil and gas corporations(of which one is a ‘clean case’) active in Angola, Mozambique, Nigeria, and Egypt. These five corporations have their headquarters in Europe with 173 subsidiaries in the Netherlands. Their annual total revenue in Africa is 36.4 billion USD. We demonstrate how such an analysis works and draw preliminary conclusions about the validity of the red flags for monitoring illicit financial flows to reach sustainable development goals.