Quantifying future sanitation scenarios and progress towards SDG targets in the shared socioeconomic pathways

Abstract

Two main targets of SDG 6 (Sustainable Development Goal), clean water and sanitation, are SDG 6.2, to achieve universal and equitable access to improved sanitation and to phase out unimproved sanitation (include pit latrines without a slab or platform, hanging latrines, bucket latrines and open defecation) and SDG 6.3, to halve the proportion of untreated wastewater by 2030. We compiled a global sanitation database for 200 countries. Starting from recent trends, we constructed a wide spectrum of contrasting future scenarios, i.e. the five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP1-5) whereby the SSP2 scenario is ‘middle of the road’ scenario. The sanitation scenarios differ due to contrasting pathways for population growth and urbanization, economic growth and the SSP narratives. Our results indicate that it will be difficult to achieve the SDG 6 target. Target 6.2 on improved sanitation is expected to be achieved between 2070 and 2090 in SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5, while the target will not be achieved by 2100 in SSP3 and SSP4. Unimproved sanitation is projected to be phased out by 2070 in SSP1 and SSP5, or beyond 2100 in SSP3 and SSP4. The percentage of households with sewerage connection will be between 51% in SSP3 and 75% in SSP5 in 2050, and respectively 60% and 95% in 2100. Target SDG 6.3 on improving wastewater treatment will be reached by 2030 only in SSP1, followed by SSP2 and SSP5 between 2040 and 2050, while in SSP3 and SSP4 this target is not reached by 2100. The developments in wastewater treatment, expressed as percentage nutrient removal, showed an increase from 14% in 2015 to 45% in 2050 and 80% in 2100 in SSP1. But in SSP3, the global percentage is expected to have hardly changed by 2050 and have declined to 12% by 2100 due to the population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. There is a major contrast between countries and regions. In the period between 2000 and 2015, although globally the percentage of people with unimproved sanitation declined, in 7% of the 200 countries the number of people with unimproved sanitation increased. Also, wastewater treatment globally improved, but in 16 countries it deteriorated. This inequality is particularly important in SSP3 and SSP4 where the lack of improved sanitation will continue till 2100.