BECCS as climate mitigation option in a Brazilian low carbon energy system: Estimating potential and effect of gigatonne scale CO2 storage

Abstract

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) can lead to negative emissions, and is seen as an important option to decarbonize energy systems. Its potential decarbonization contribution depends on low-carbon resource availability, its ability to meet end-use demand and the geological storage potential to safely trap CO2. Here an energy system model is used to assess the BECCS decarbonization potential in Brazil, considering uncertainty in low-carbon biomass resources, and storage potential, injection rates and costs of CO2 storage, assessed in eight scenarios. A spatial explicit analysis is done to make improved estimates on the storage potential, injection rates, and costs for CO2 storage in the Rio Bonito saline aquifer of the Paraná basin. Although there are large differences in storage potential (12–117 Gt CO2) and costs (on average 5–15 $/t CO2), the accumulated volume of CO2 stored between 2010 and 2050 is 2.9 Gt CO2 for all scenarios, with injection rates around 240 Mt CO2 in 2050. This shows that BECCS is a cost-competitive option to decarbonize the Brazilian energy system, even under pessimistic estimates of CO2 storage potential and costs, and low biomass availability. The cheapest sink locations are selected, in the high development scenario. When CCS development is low, injection rates are the limiting factor. Locations are selected with the highest injection rates, even though sometimes more expensive. When CO2 storage is limited, total system costs increase, mainly because decarbonization of the industry and freight transport sector relies on more expensive decarbonization options such as green hydrogen.