Implications of a Paris-proof Scenario for Future Supply of Weather-dependent Variable Renewable Energy in Europe
Hu, Jing; Koning, Vinzenz; Bosshard, Thomas; Harmsen, Robert; Crijns - Graus, Wina; Worrell, Ernst; van den Broek, Machteld
(2023) Advances in Applied Energy, volume 10
(Article)
Abstract
To meet the European Union's 2050 climate neutrality target, future electricity generation is expected to largely rely on variable renewable energy (VRE). VRE supply, being dependant on weather, is susceptible to changing climate conditions. Based on spatiotemporally explicit climate data under a Paris-proof climate scenario and a comprehensive energy conversion
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model, this study assesses the projected changes of European VRE supply from the perspective of average production, production variability, spatiotemporal complementarity, and risk of concurrent renewable energy droughts. For the period 2045–2055, we find a minor reduction in average wind and solar production for most of Europe compared to the period 1990–2010. At the country level, the impact of climate change on average VRE production is rather limited in magnitude (within ±3% for wind and ±2% for solar). The projected mid-term changes in other aspects of VRE supply are also relatively small. This suggests climate-related impacts on European VRE supply are less of a concern if the Paris-proof emission reduction pathway is strictly followed. Based on spectral analysis, we identify strong seasonal wind-solar complementarities (with an anticorrelation between -0.6 and -0.9) at the cross-regional level. This reduces the demand for seasonal storage but requires coordinated cross-border efforts to develop a pan-European transmission infrastructure. The risk of concurrent renewable energy droughts between a country and the rest of Europe remains non-negligible, even under the copperplate assumption. Central Western European countries and Poland are most vulnerable to such risk, suggesting the need for the planning of adequate flexibility resources.
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Keywords: Capacity factor, Climate change, Climate impact, Copula, Cross-border, Dunkelflaute, Energy, Energy conversion, Energy droughts, Energy system, Europe, Futute climate, Paris Agreement, Power system, Renewable energy, Solar, Spectral analysis, Tail dependence, VRE, Wind, Wind-solar complementarity, General Energy
ISSN: 2666-7924
Publisher: Elsevier Ltd
Note: Funding Information: This work is part of the research programme “Evaluating sediment Delivery Impacts on Reservoirs in changing climaTe and society across scales and sectors (DIRT-X)” with project number 438.19.902, which is financed by the European Research Area Network (ERA-NET). We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Regional Climate, and the Working Group on Coupled Modelling, former coordinating body of CORDEX and responsible panel for CMIP5. We also thank the climate modelling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. We also acknowledge the Earth System Grid Federation infrastructure an international effort led by the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, the European Network for Earth System Modelling and other partners in the Global Organisation for Earth System Science Portals (GO-ESSP). The authors are also grateful to Laurens Stoop for his support of data provision and inspiring discussions. We also appreciate the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments. Funding Information: This work is part of the research programme “Evaluating sediment Delivery Impacts on Reservoirs in changing climaTe and society across scales and sectors (DIRT-X)” with project number 438.19.902, which is financed by the European Research Area Network (ERA-NET). We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Regional Climate, and the Working Group on Coupled Modelling, former coordinating body of CORDEX and responsible panel for CMIP5. We also thank the climate modelling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. We also acknowledge the Earth System Grid Federation infrastructure an international effort led by the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, the European Network for Earth System Modelling and other partners in the Global Organisation for Earth System Science Portals (GO-ESSP). The authors are also grateful to Laurens Stoop for his support of data provision and inspiring discussions. We also appreciate the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments. Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Author(s)
(Peer reviewed)