Behavioral biases and heuristics in perceptions of COVID-19 risks and prevention decisions

Abstract

This study adds to an emerging literature on the factors associated with individual perceptions of COVID-19 risks and decision-making processes related to prevention behaviors. We conducted a survey in the Netherlands (N = 3600) in June–July 2020 when the first peak of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths had passed, and lockdown measures had been eased. Dutch policies relied heavily on individual prevention behaviors to mitigate a second infection wave. We examine whether biases and heuristics that have been observed in how people perceive and respond to other risks also apply to the newly emergent risks posed by COVID-19. The results indicate that people simplify risk using threshold models and that risk perceptions are related with personal experiences with COVID-19 and experiences of close others, supporting the availability heuristic. We also observe that prevention behavior is more strongly associated with COVID-19 risk perceptions and feelings toward the risk than with local indicators of COVID-19 risks, and that prevention behavior is related with herding. Support for government lockdown measures is consistent with preferences that may contribute to the not-in-my-term-of-office bias. In addition, we offer insights into the role of trust, worry, and demographic characteristics in shaping perceptions of COVID-19 risks and how these factors relate with individual prevention behaviors and support for government prevention measures. We provide several lessons for the design of policies that limit COVID-19 risks, including risk communication strategies and appeals to social norms. Perhaps more importantly, our analysis allows for learning lessons to mitigate the risks of future pandemics.