Ground-motion prediction models for induced earthquakes in the Groningen gas field, the Netherlands
Bommer, Julian J.; Stafford, Peter J.; Ruigrok, Elmer; Rodriguez-Marek, Adrian; Ntinalexis, Michail; Kruiver, Pauline P.; Edwards, Benjamin; Dost, Bernard; van Elk, Jan
(2022) Journal of Seismology, volume 26, issue 6, pp. 1157 - 1184
(Article)
Abstract
Small-magnitude earthquakes induced by gas production in the Groningen field in the Netherlands have prompted the development of seismic risk models that serve both to estimate the impact of these events and to explore the efficacy of different risk mitigation strategies. A core element of the risk modelling is ground-motion
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prediction models (GMPM) derived from an extensive database of recordings obtained from a dense network of accelerographs installed in the field. For the verification of damage claims, an empirical GMPM for peak ground velocity (PGV) has been developed, which predicts horizontal PGV as a function of local magnitude, ML; hypocentral distance, Rhyp; and the time-averaged shear-wave velocity over the upper 30 m, VS30. For modelling the risk due to potential induced and triggered earthquakes of larger magnitude, a GMPM for response spectral accelerations has been developed from regressions on the outputs from finite-rupture simulations of motions at a deeply buried rock horizon. The GMPM for rock motions is coupled with a zonation map defining frequency-dependent non-linear amplification factors to obtain estimates of surface motions in the region of thick deposits of soft soils. The GMPM for spectral accelerations is formulated within a logic-tree framework to capture the epistemic uncertainty associated with extrapolation from recordings of events of ML ≤ 3.6 to much larger magnitudes.
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Keywords: Groningen gas field, Ground-motion prediction, Induced earthquakes, Seismic risk analysis, Site response, Geophysics, Geochemistry and Petrology
ISSN: 1383-4649
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Note: Funding Information: The development of the Groningen ground-motion models was greatly enriched by the technical challenges and constructive suggestions from an international panel of experts engaged to review the process from the V2 GMM, starting with a 2-day workshop in October 2015, right through to the final V7 model. This panel, chaired by Jonathan Stewart, was comprised of Norm Abrahamson, Gail Atkinson, Hilmar Bungum, Fabrice Cotton, John Douglas, Ivan Wong, and Bob Youngs. In July 2016, we held a workshop to discuss the inclusion of finite rupture effects, in which we fortunate to benefit from contributions by Norm Abrahamson, Luis Angel Dalguer, Christine Goulet, and Bob Youngs, as well as from colleagues at ExxonMobil, especially Brian Zurek, and at Shell, especially Ewoud van Dedem. We also wish to thank Edwin Obando-Hernández, Manos Pefkos, and colleagues from Deltares for performing large numbers of the site response analyses. We also thank the following individuals for important contributions: Rui Pinho and his colleagues Francesco Cavalieri and António Correia for their excellent work on exploring dynamic soil-structure interaction effects at the strong-motion recording stations and applying corrections to the recordings from accelerographs installed in basements; Helen Crowley for liaising with us regarding the fragility model and the interfaces with the ground-motion predictions and the risk calculations; and Steve Oates and Stephen Bourne for extensive discussions regarding the interfaces with the seismic source model in the hazard and risk engine. Finally, our thanks to Pablo Castellanos-Nash and Jesper Spetzler for providing very useful insights through the implementation of the V7 GMM in the risk calculation engine of NAM and the hazard code of KNMI, respectively. The final version of this paper was greatly improved as a result of anonymous review comments for which we are very grateful. Funding Information: The work of Bommer, Stafford, Rodriguez-Marek, Ntinalexis, and Edwards on this project was funded by NAM (Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij B.V.), the operator of the Groningen gas field. Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s).
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