Towards transformative leapfrogging

Abstract

Latecomer countries are increasingly confronted with the simultaneous challenge of achieving industry competitiveness and sustainability transitions. We revisit the long-standing debate on how latecomers may break free from the trajectories of the developed countries and leapfrog into more sustainable directions. Connecting insights from the fields of catching-up, socio-technical transitions, and economic geography, we propose a heuristic typology of four development pathways for latecomers. While the catching-up literature has focused on knowledge development as a main strategy, we posit that to address grand challenges, it is imperative for latecomers to implement valuation-focused strategies, which include shaping technology legitimacy, markets, and finance flows at the systemic level. We showcase the shifting trajectory of the Chinese solar photovoltaic industry from technology catching-up to forging ahead in pre-existing global value chains, and eventually towards transformative leapfrogging aimed at reconfiguring the entire socio-technical system of the electricity sector. We conclude with a research agenda for latecomer development.