The relationship between ecosystem services and human modification displays decoupling across global delta systems

Abstract

The ties between a society and its local ecosystem can decouple as societies develop and replace ecosystem services such as food or water regulation via trade and technology. River deltas have developed into important, yet threatened, urban, agricultural and industrial centres. Here, we use global spatial datasets to explore how 49 ecosystem services respond to four human modification indicators, e.g. population density, across 235 large deltas. We formed bundles of statistically correlated ecosystem services and examined if their relationship with modification changed. Decoupling of all robust ecosystem service bundles from at least one modification indicator was indicated in 34% of deltas, while 53% displayed decoupling for at least one bundle. Food-related ecosystem services increased with modification, while the other bundles declined. Our findings suggest two developmental pathways for deltas: as coupled agricultural systems risking irreversible local biodiversity loss; and as decoupled urban centres externalising the impact of their growing demands.