A systematic framework for the assessment of sustainable hydropower potential in a river basin – The case of the upper Indus
Dhaubanjar, Sanita; Lutz, Arthur F.; Gernaat, David E.H.J.; Nepal, Santosh; Smolenaars, Wouter; Pradhananga, Saurav; Biemans, Hester; Ludwig, Fulco; Shrestha, Arun B.; Immerzeel, Walter W.
(2021) Science of the Total Environment, volume 786, pp. 1 - 18
(Article)
Abstract
Siloed-approaches may fuel the misguided development of hydropower and subsequent target-setting under the sustainable development goals (SDGs). While hydropower development in the Indus basin is vital to ensure energy security (SDG7), it needs to be balanced with water use for fulfilling food (SDG2) and water (SDG6) security. Existing methods to
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estimate hydropower potential generally focus on: only one class of potential, a methodological advance for either of hydropower siting, sizing, or costing of one site, or the ranking of a portfolio of projects. A majority of them fall short in addressing sustainability. Hence, we develop a systematic framework for the basin-scale assessment of the sustainable hydropower potential by integrating considerations of the water-energy-food nexus, disaster risk, climate change, environmental protection, and socio-economic preferences. Considering the case of the upper Indus, the framework is developed by combining advances in literature, insights from local hydropower practitioners and over 30 datasets to represent real-life challenges to sustainable hydropower development, while distinguishing between small and large plants for two run-of-river plant configurations. The framework first addresses theoretical potential and successively constrains this further by stepwise inclusion of technical, economical, and sustainability criteria to obtain the sustainable exploitable hydropower potential. We conclude that sustainable hydropower potential in complex basins such as the Indus goes far beyond the hydrological boundary conditions. Our framework enables the careful inclusion of factors beyond the status-quo technological and economic criterions to guide policymakers in hydropower development decisions in the Indus and beyond. Future work will implement the framework to quantify the different hydropower potential classes and explore adaptation pathways to balance SDG7 with the other interlinked SDGs in the Indus.
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Keywords: Hydropower development, Hydropower potential, Hydropower siting, Hydropower sizing, Sustainability, Sustainable development goals, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Chemistry, Waste Management and Disposal, Pollution
ISSN: 0048-9697
Publisher: Elsevier bedrijfsinformatie b.v.
Note: Funding Information: This research conducted under the SustaIndus project has received funding from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research under WOTRO Joint Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) research program (Grant W 07.30318.002 ). This work was partially supported by Sustainable Development Investment Portfolio (SDIP), the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), Government of Australia, the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and by core funds from ICIMOD contributed by the governments of Afghanistan, Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Norway, Pakistan, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The views and interpretations in this publication are those of the authors and are not necessarily attributable to their organizations. We are grateful to stakeholders Waqar Ahmed Khan, Meherban Khan, Muhammad Darjat, Muhammad Ziaullah, Ali Mehdi, and especially Asim Rauf Khan, for sharing their insights on hydropower production in Pakistan and providing feedback on model parameterization to represent the ground-realities. Samaa Mufti is acknowledged for coordinating the stakeholder discussions. Tim J Grandjean provided editorial comments on earlier version of the paper. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Authors
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