Human development, greenhouse gas emissions and sub-national mitigation burdens: a Brazilian perspective

Abstract

International frameworks for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation usually disregard country-specific inequalities for the allocation of mitigation burdens. This may hinder low developed regions in a country from achieving development in a socioeconomic perspective, such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of eradicating poverty (SDG1) and hunger (SDG2). We use observed data (1991–2010) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq) emissions and a sub-national human development index (MicroHDI, range [0, 1]) for Brazilian microregions to design a framework where regional mitigation burdens are proportional to the MicroHDI, without compromising national mitigation pledges. According to our results, the less developed Brazilian regions have not been basing their development in emission-intensive activities; instead, the most developed regions have. Between 2011 and 2050, Brazilian cumulative emissions from the sectors most correlated with MicroHDI are expected to be 325 Gt CO2eq, of which only 50 Gt are associated with regions of MicroHDI < 0.8. Assuming a national GHG mitigation target of 56.5% in 2050 over 2010 (consistent with limiting global warming to 2 ºC), Brazil would emit 190 Gt CO2eq instead of 325 Gt and the 135 Gt reduction is only accounted for by regions after reaching MicroHDI ≥ 0.8. Allocating environmental restrictions to the high-developed regions leaves ground for the least developed ones to pursue development with fewer restrictions. Our heterogeneous framework represents a fairer allocation of mitigation burdens which could be implemented under the concepts of green economy. This work could be an international reference for addressing both environmental and socioeconomic development in developing countries at sub-national level as emphasized by the SDGs.