Grounding global environmental assessments through bottom-up futures based on local practices and perspectives
Pereira, Laura; Asrar, Ghassem R.; Bhargava, Rohan; Fisher, Laur Hesse; Hsu, Angel; Jabbour, Jason; Nel, Jeanne; Selomane, Odirilwe; Sitas, Nadia; Trisos, Christopher; Ward, James; Ende, Mandy van den; Vervoort, Joost; Weinfurter, Amy
(2021) Sustainability Science, volume 16, issue 6, pp. 1907 - 1922
(Article)
Abstract
Future scenarios and pathways of potential development trajectories are powerful tools to assist with decision-making to address many sustainability challenges. Such scenarios play a major role in global environmental assessments (GEAs). Currently, however, scenarios in GEAs are mostly developed at the global level by experts and researchers, and locally imagined,
... read more
bottom-up scenarios do not play a role in such assessments. In this paper, we argue that addressing future sustainability challenges for achieving more equitable development in GEAs requires a more explicit role for bottom-up inspired futures. To this end, this paper employs an innovative global assessment framework for exploring alternative futures that are grounded in local realities and existing practical actions, and that can be appropriately scaled to the required decision-making level. This framework was applied in the context of the UN’s Global Environment Outlook 6, a major example of a GEA. We developed novel methods for synthesizing insights from a wide range of local practices and perspectives into global futures. We collected information from crowdsourcing platforms, outcomes of participatory workshops in different regions of the world, and an assessment of reported regional outlooks. We analysed these according to a framework also used by an integrated assessment model in the same GEA. We conclude that bottom-up approaches to identify and assess transformative solutions that envision future pathways towards greater sustainability significantly strengthen current GEA scenario-development approaches. They provide decision makers with required actionable information based on tangible synergistic solutions that have been tested on the ground. This work has revealed that there are significant opportunities for the integration of bottom-up knowledge and insights into GEAs, to make such assessments more salient and valuable to decision makers.
show less
Download/Full Text
Keywords: Futures thinking, Global environmental assessments, Innovation, Participatory processes, Scenarios, Sustainable development goals, Transformations, Global and Planetary Change, Health(social science), Geography, Planning and Development, Ecology, Sociology and Political Science, Nature and Landscape Conservation, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
ISSN: 1862-4065
Publisher: Springer Japan
Note: Funding Information: This work is based on the research supported in part by the National Research Foundation of South Africa (Grant Number 115300), and the Swedish Research Council FORMAS Project Nos 2018-02371 and 2020-00670. The authors would like to acknowledge funding from the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), which is carried out with support from the CGIAR Trust Fund and through bilateral funding agreements (see https://ccafs.cgiar.org/donors ); as well as funding from the Programme on Climate Smart Livestock at ILRI, which was commissioned by GIZ and funded by the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany. The views expressed in this document cannot be taken to reflect the official positions of these organisations. Publisher Copyright: © 2021, The Author(s).
(Peer reviewed)
