Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on the Caribbean Under Future Climate Conditions
Kleptsova, Olga S.; Dijkstra, Henk A.; van Westen, René M.; van der Boog, Carine G.; Katsman, Caroline A.; James, Rebecca K.; Bouma, Tjeerd J.; Klees, Roland; Riva, Riccardo E. M.; Slobbe, D. Cornelis; Zijlema, Marcel; Pietrzak, Julie D.
(2021) Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, volume 126, issue 9, pp. 1 - 20
(Article)
Abstract
Joint effects of the dynamic sea-level rise projected changes in the large-scale atmosphere/ocean circulation, and wave climate on hurricane-induced extreme water levels in the Caribbean region are assessed. We use the 2D-depth integrated ADCIRC + SWAN wave-ocean model, baroclinically coupled to an ocean-eddying version of the Community Earth System Model, to compare
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impacts of the September 2017 hurricanes with projected impacts of similar hypothetical tropical storms occurring in the future. The model predicts only minor changes in the hurricane-induced extreme water levels for those Caribbean islands which were severely devastated by the 2017 tropical storms (Irma and Maria). That is, provided that the hurricane intensity remains at the present-day level, the global mean sea-level rise is the main future coastal flood risk factor.
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Keywords: Taverne, Geochemistry and Petrology, Geophysics, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), Space and Planetary Science, Oceanography
ISSN: 2169-9275
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
Note: Funding Information: This work is part of the research program ALW‐Caribbean with project 858.14.061 (SCENES), which is financed by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO). The authors thank Michael Kliphuis (IMAU, UU) for his assistance with the CESM simulations. We would also like to show our gratitude to William Pringle and Brian Joyce (Computational Hydraulics Laboratory, University of Notre Dame) for their help with ADCIRC and setting up the numerical model. All computations were performed on the Cartesius at SURF‐sara in Amsterdam. The tidal products were produced and distributed by Egbert & Erofeeva, OSU, 2010 ( https://www.tpxo.net/home ). Ocean self‐attraction and loading terms were produced by Noveltis, Legos, and CLS and distributed by AVISO+, with support from CNES ( https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/ ). Funding Information: This work is part of the research program ALW-Caribbean with project 858.14.061 (SCENES), which is financed by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO). The authors thank Michael Kliphuis (IMAU, UU) for his assistance with the CESM simulations. We would also like to show our gratitude to William Pringle and Brian Joyce (Computational Hydraulics Laboratory, University of Notre Dame) for their help with ADCIRC and setting up the numerical model. All computations were performed on the Cartesius at SURF-sara in Amsterdam. The tidal products were produced and distributed by Egbert & Erofeeva, OSU,?2010 (https://www.tpxo.net/home). Ocean self-attraction and loading terms were produced by Noveltis, Legos, and CLS and distributed by AVISO+, with support from CNES (https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/). Publisher Copyright: © 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
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