Exploring sustainable heating solutions for buildings at the neighbourhood level

Abstract

Space heating in buildings represents nearly half of the final heat demand in Europe. The potential to save emissions from existing fossil-based heating supply systems is substantial. The Netherlands announced in 2018 its decision to phase out natural gas by 2050 and to supply buildings from 2021 with sustainable heating. Models with a high level of spatial resolution can support the assessment of potential low-carbon heating systems at the local level. This study introduces the Vesta MAIS model, an open-source tool developed for local governments and urban planners in the Netherlands to support the development of municipal roadmaps. The method presented in this study can be applied for a neighbourhood or city and provides new insights for Dutch local authorities and researchers on the suitability and limitations of the Vesta MAIS model. Four scenarios, including individual and district heating technologies and building shell improvements, are compared up to 2030 from a techno-economic and environmental perspective. Our results demonstrate that district heating appears to be the most suitable strategy for the studied area, but with subtle underlying differences in the optimal levels of network temperature, heat density and building insulation. A further investigation of the most favourable combination of these parameters, the use of local data, and the inclusion of additional criteria, next to costs and CO2 emissions, is suggested to increase the practical use of model outcomes. This research serves as a showcase emphasizing the importance of a local analysis in the decision-making of potential heating strategies.