Integrating behavioral theories in agent-based models for agricultural drought risk assessments

Abstract

Improving assessments of droughts risk for smallholder farmers requires a better understanding of the interaction between individual adaptation decisions and drought risk. Agent-based modeling is increasingly used to capture the interaction between individual decision-making and the environment. In this paper, we provide a review of drought risk agent-based models with a focus on behavioral rules. This review leads to the conclusion that human decision rules in existing drought risk agent-based models are often based on ad hoc assumptions without a solid theoretical and empirical foundation. Subsequently, we review behavioral economic and psychological theories to provide a clear overview of theories that can improve the theoretical foundation of smallholder farmer behavior and we review empirical parameterization, calibration, and validation methods of those theories. Based on these reviews, we provide a conceptual framework that can give guidance for the integration of behavioral theories in agent-based models. We conclude with an agenda to guide future research in this field.