Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets
Payne, Antony J.; Nowicki, Sophie; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Agosta, Cécile; Alexander, Patrick; Albrecht, Torsten; Asay-Davis, Xylar; Aschwanden, Andy; Barthel, Alice; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.; Calov, Reinhard; Chambers, Christopher; Choi, Youngmin; Cullather, Richard; Cuzzone, Joshua; Dumas, Christophe; Edwards, Tamsin L.; Felikson, Denis; Fettweis, Xavier; Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K.; Goelzer, Heiko; Gladstone, Rupert; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Greve, Ralf; Hattermann, Tore; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Humbert, Angelika; Huybrechts, Philippe; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Kleiner, Thomas; Munneke, Peter Kuipers; Larour, Eric; Le clec'h, Sebastien; Lee, Victoria; Leguy, Gunter; Lipscomb, William H.; Little, Christopher M.; Lowry, Daniel P.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Nias, Isabel; Pattyn, Frank; Pelle, Tyler; Price, Stephen F.; Quiquet, Aurélien; Reese, Ronja; Rückamp, Martin; Schlegel, Nicole Jeanne; Seroussi, Hélène; Shepherd, Andrew; Simon, Erika; Slater, Donald; Smith, Robin S.; Straneo, Fiammetta; Sun, Sainan; Tarasov, Lev; Trusel, Luke D.; Van Breedam, Jonas; van de Wal, Roderik; van den Broeke, Michiel; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Zhao, Chen; Zhang, Tong; Zwinger, Thomas
(2021) Geophysical Research Letters, volume 48, issue 16, pp. 1 - 8
(Article)
Abstract
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled
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Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.
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Keywords: Antarctica, Greenland, ice sheet, sea level, Geophysics, General Earth and Planetary Sciences
ISSN: 0094-8276
Publisher: Wiley Online Library
Note: Funding Information: The authors would like to thank the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) project for providing support for ISMIP6 through the sponsorship of workshops and hosting the ISMIP6 website. We acknowledge the University at Buffalo for their help with ISMIP6 data distribution, and the multiple agencies that support CMIP5, CMIP6, and the Earth System Grid Federation. This is ISMIP6 contribution number 12. This project received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Grant agreement No 869304, PROTECT contribution number 4. Funding Information: The authors would like to thank the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) project for providing support for ISMIP6 through the sponsorship of workshops and hosting the ISMIP6 website. We acknowledge the University at Buffalo for their help with ISMIP6 data distribution, and the multiple agencies that support CMIP5, CMIP6, and the Earth System Grid Federation. This is ISMIP6 contribution number 12. This project received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Grant agreement No 869304, PROTECT contribution number 4. Publisher Copyright: © 2021. The Authors.
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