A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions
Fujimori, Shinichiro; Krey, Volker; van Vuuren, Detlef; Oshiro, Ken; Sugiyama, Masahiro; Chunark, Puttipong; Limmeechokchai, Bundit; Mittal, Shivika; Nishiura, Osamu; Park, Chan; Rajbhandari, Salony; Silva Herran, Diego; Tu, Tran Thanh; Zhao, Shiya; Ochi, Yuki; Shukla, Priyardarshi R.; Masui, Toshihiko; Nguyen, Phuong V.H.; Cabardos, Anique Marie; Riahi, Keywan
(2021) Nature Climate Change, volume 11, issue 6, pp. 472 - 480
(Article)
Abstract
National-level climate actions will be vital in achieving global temperature goals in the coming decades. Near-term (2025–2030) plans are laid out in Nationally Determined Contributions; the next step is the submission of long-term strategies for 2050. At present, national scenarios underpinning long-term strategies are poorly coordinated and incompatible across countries,
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preventing assessment of individual nations’ climate policies. Here we present a systematic and standardized, yet flexible, scenario framework varying 2050 emissions to build long-term national energy and climate mitigation scenarios. Applying the framework to six major Asian countries reveals individual challenges in energy system transformation and investment needs in comparable scenarios. This framework could be a starting point for comprehensive assessments as input to the Global Stocktake over the coming years.
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Keywords: Climate-change mitigation, climate-change policy, Socioeconomic scenarios, Taverne, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
ISSN: 1758-678X
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
Note: Funding Information: S.F., K.O., D.S.H. and T.M. are supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (grant numbers JPMEERF20192008 and JPMEERF20211001) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. S.F. and K.O. are supported by JSPS KAKENHI (19H02273) and the Sumitomo Foundation. S.F., K.O., V.K., D.v.V., K.R., B.L. and T.T.T received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement number 821471 (ENGAGE). C.P. was supported by the International Research & Development Program of the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT (grant number NRF2019K1A3A1A7811297311). Publisher Copyright: © 2021, Springer Nature Limited.
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