Enhancing energy models with geo-spatial data for the analysis of future electrification pathways: the case of Tanzania

Abstract

In light of a national policy aiming at satisfying a growing demand for electricity, while achieving a greater diversification of power generation technologies and full electrification by 2050, this research models and contrasts alternative electrification pathways for Tanzania in the time frame 2015–2040. The study relies on an improved model grounded on the OSeMOSYS framework. GIS data are used both to determine the electricity demand projections and to inform the decision about the optimal production technologies made by OSeMOSYS with a least-cost criterion. Findings indicate that the stated policy goals (New Policy scenario) are within reach, but they also imply an increase in installed capacity from less than 2 GW to at least 13.8 GW, corresponding to an investment of 25.3 billion USD, which is significantly above historical spending in the power sector. Also, only an additional environmental policy (450TZ scenario) would ensure that the carbon intensity of the power sector lowers from a current 440 gCO2/kWh to around 100 gCO2/kWh in 2040, with the additional benefit of a lower average cost of providing electricity (compared to the New Policy scenario). An Energy For All scenario where universal access is achieved two decades earlier (in 2030) is also feasible but implies more difficulties in lowering carbon intensity or the cost of providing electricity. Results for universal access are the object of a separate in-depth discussion and a sensitivity analysis looks at the effect of key assumption (e.g., on demand projections and discount rate) on the main results.