Scenarios for geothermal energy deployment in Europe

Abstract

The use of geothermal energy in Europe is expected to grow rapidly over the next decades, since this energy resource is generally abundant, ubiquitous, versatile, low-carbon, and non-intermittent. We have expanded and adapted the integrated assessment model TIAM-ECN to more adequately reflect geothermal energy potentials and to better represent the various sectors in which geothermal energy could possibly be used. With the updated version of TIAM-ECN, we quantify how large the share of geothermal energy in Europe could grow until 2050, and analyze how this expansion could be stimulated by climate policy and technological progress. We investigate geothermal energy’s two main applications: power and heat production. For the former, we project an increase to around 100–210 TWh/yr in 2050, depending on assumptions regarding climate ambition and cost reductions for enhanced geothermal resource systems. For the latter, with applications in residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural sectors, we anticipate under the same assumptions a rise to about 880–1050 TWh/yr in 2050. We estimate that by the middle of the century geothermal energy plants could contribute approximately 4–7% to European electricity generation. We foresee a European geothermal energy investment market (supply plus demand side) possibly worth about 160–210 billion US$/yr by mid-century.