Mapping environmental and techno-economic bioenergy potentials of Brazil

Abstract

Bioenergy can be a crucial energy system to reduce climate change, while promoting socioeconomic development. However, it is rather difficult to quantify the environmental and technoeconomic potentials of bioenergy production due to the high spatial and temporal variability of environmental impacts and techno-economic factors. Hence, a key research challenge on bioenergy potential quantification is to address environmental impacts and techno-economic factors in a spatially and temporally explicit manner. The objective of the thesis is to spatially explicitly assess the current and future environmental and techno-economic potentials of bioenergy supply in Brazil at different geographical scales. To reach this goal, two promising bioenergy systems in Brazil are analyzed in four different case studies. In chapters 2 and 3, the bioelectricity potentials from sugarcane straw are assessed in the state of São Paulo (Brazil). In chapters 4 and 5, various aviation biofuels (BJF) supply chains from energy crops and biomass residues are assessed to map and quantify the environmental and techno-economic bioenergy potentials in Brazil. Throughout the chapters, different methodological approaches were taken due to the various geographical scales, timeframes and levels of complexity of the case studies. The methods used in each chapter are briefly summarized in chapter 1 and cross-compared in chapter 6. The main results of this thesis can be comprised in five points: i) Refining environmental and techno-economic constraints of bioenergy supply chains to pixel level is a major methodological challenge for quantifying bioenergy potentials spatially explicitly. ii) The sugarcane mills in Sao Paulo with the highest environmental and techno-economic potentials of bioelectricity from sugarcane straw are mostly in regions with optimal agro-ecological conditions, have a medium to high milling capacity and have high accessibility to the electricity distribution network. iii) The development of BJF industry should not only focus on the supply chain that achieves the lowest BJF total costs. There are regions in Brazil in which up to 10 supply chains could produce BJF total costs below the fossil jet fuel price. iv) Currently, BJF is not competitive with fossil jet fuel in the (central) regions of Brazil with highest demand for aviation fuels. Nonetheless, due to the large size of the country and the high fossil jet fuel prices in airports located in (remote) regions of Brazil, niches for the development of competitive BJF may exist. v) Brazil has a large techno-economic and environmental potential of bioenergy (bioelectricity and BJF), but implementation is limited by several additional (and local contextual) factors. Through the methods, results and discussions presented across the chapters, this thesis contains useful information to support a broad range stakeholders at local and national levels, such as farmers, private and public investors, policy makers and regulating bodies.