Krym Nash: An Analysis of Modern Russian Deception Warfare

Abstract

Krym Nash (Crimea is ours) provides insights into how the Russian authorities currently influence their opponents by way of deception. This research is based on forms of deception, such as maskirovka, reflexive control, active measures, agents of influence, spetspropaganda, agitprop, disinformation and fake news, as used in the past by Russian and Soviet authorities, including their security and intelligence services. In addition, it was examined whether other forms of deception could also be recognized.

Until now hardly any research has been done into uncertainty, the pre-condition for deception. Also, little was known about the effects of deception, namely surprise and manipulated perception. Krym Nash, therefore, elaborates on uncertainty, surprise and manipulated perception. Although a great many publications on conflict have circulated in the last fifty years, hardly any academic research on deception has taken place in the West, evidently because it lacked sophistication. Moreover, in the West there is a fascination for the physical attrition of the opponent instead of systemic disruption, a method often used by non-Western countries.

The main conclusion of Krym Nash is that during the Russo-Georgian armed conflict in 2008 and the annexation of Crimea in 2014, there are six striking elements of Russian deception, complementing the aforementioned forms of that deception: (1) creating uncertainty by issuing Russian passports and using the Olympics as a distractor, (2) applying conspiracy theories, (3) employing rapid and stealth intervention with Special Forces, organized civilians and private military companies, (4) making use of military demonstrations, (5) increasing activities in cyberspace and information sphere, and (6) finding ways to ensure that manipulated perceptions are maintained.