The Comparison of Three Statistical Models for Syndromic Surveillance in Cattle Using Milk Production Data

Abstract

Two vector-borne infections have emerged and spread throughout the north-western part of Europe in the last decade: Bluetongue virus serotype-8 (BTV-8) and the Schmallenberg virus (SBV). The objective of the current study was to compare three statistical methods when applied in a syndromic surveillance context for the early detection of emerging diseases in cattle in the Netherlands. Since BTV-8 and SBV both have a negative effect on milk production in dairy cattle, routinely collected bulk milk recordings were used to compare the three statistical methods in their potential to detect drops in milk production during a period of seven years in which BTV-8 and SBV emerged. A Cusum algorithm, Bayesian disease mapping model, and spatiotemporal cluster analysis using the space-time scan statistic were performed and their performance in terms of sensitivity and specificity was compared. Spatiotemporal cluster analysis performed best for early detection of SBV in cattle in the Netherlands with a relative sensitivity of 71% compared to clinical surveillance and 100% specificity in a year without major disease outbreaks. Sensitivity to detect BTV-8 was low for all methods. However, many alerts of reduced milk production were generated several weeks before the week in which first clinical suspicions were reported. It cannot be excluded that these alerts represent the actual first signs of BTV-8 infections in cattle in the Netherlands thus leading to an underestimation of the sensitivity of the syndromic surveillance methods relative to the clinical surveillance in place.