Paris-proof power: Exploring the consequences of different decarbonisation strategies in the European electricity sector

Abstract

After decades of delay, the actions required to address climate change are becoming increasingly urgent and severe. A climate emergency has been declared in some countries, and decarbonisation efforts must accelerate if the 1.5 °C warming limit set out in the Paris Agreement is to be achieved. The electric power sector is expected to play a key role in decarbonisation. However, amidst the growing penetration of variable renewable energy sources (RES), concerns around the current electricity market design, and potential need negative emission technologies (NETs), policymakers are faced with significant challenges and uncertainties in developing decarbonisation strategies for the European power sector. This thesis explores the consequences of pursuing three broad decarbonisation strategies in terms of reliability, achievement of climate objectives, and economic viability. The strategies considered are: (i) employing a diverse portfolio of low-carbon generation technologies, (ii) a system based on 100% RES, and (iii) relying on large-scale deployment of NETs in the power sector. The results show that a technology-diverse strategy offers the best chance of supplying electricity reliably to European consumers at the lowest possible cost, in a way that is consistent with the Paris Agreement. While a reliable power system based on 100% RES could be achieved by 2050, it is likely to be more costly and may not reduce greenhouse gas emission enough to achieve the 1.5 °C warming limit. A strategy relying on large-scale deployment of NETs in the power sector would be even more costly.