Spatial modeling of techno-economic potential of biojet fuel production in Brazil

Abstract

It is expected that Brazil could play an important role in biojet fuel (BJF) production in the future due to the long experience in biofuel production and the good agro-ecological conditions. However, it is difficult to quantify the techno-economic potential of BJF because of the high spatiotemporal variability of available land, biomass yield, and infrastructure as well as the technological developments in BJF production pathways. The objective of this research is to assess the recent and future techno-economic potential of BJF production in Brazil and to identify location-specific optimal combinations of biomass crops and technological conversion pathways. In total, 13 production routes (supply chains) are assessed through the combination of various biomass crops and BJF technologies. We consider temporal land use data to identify potential land availability for biomass production. With the spatial distribution of the land availability and potential yield of biomass crops, biomass production potential and costs are calculated. The BJF production cost is calculated by taking into account the development in the technological pathways and in plant scales. We estimate the techno-economic potential by determining the minimum BJF total costs and comparing this with the range of fossil jet fuel prices. The techno-economic potential of BJF production ranges from 0 to 6.4 EJ in 2015 and between 1.2 and 7.8 EJ in 2030, depending on the reference fossil jet fuel price, which varies from 19 to 65 US$/GJ across the airports. The techno-economic potential consists of a diverse set of production routes. The Northeast and Southeast region of Brazil present the highest potentials with several viable production routes, whereas the remaining regions only have a few promising production routes. The maximum techno-economic potential of BJF in Brazil could meet almost half of the projected global jet fuel demand toward 2030.