SOURCE: A Registry-Based Prediction Model for Overall Survival in Patients with Metastatic Oesophageal or Gastric Cancer
van den Boorn, Héctor G; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Ter Veer, Emil; van Kleef, Jessy Joy; Lordick, Florian; Stahl, Michael; Ajani, Jaffer A; Guimbaud, Rosine; Park, Se Hoon; Dutton, Susan J; Bang, Yung-Jue; Boku, Narikazu; Mohammad, Nadia Haj; Sprangers, Mirjam A G; Verhoeven, Rob H A; Zwinderman, Aeilko H; van Oijen, Martijn G H; van Laarhoven, Hanneke W M
(2019) Cancers, volume 11, issue 2
(Article)
Abstract
Prediction models are only sparsely available for metastatic oesophagogastric cancer. Because treatment in this setting is often preference-based, decision-making with the aid of a prediction model is wanted. The aim of this study is to construct a prediction model, called SOURCE, for the overall survival in patients with metastatic oesophagogastric
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cancer. Data from patients with metastatic oesophageal (n = 8010) or gastric (n = 4763) cancer diagnosed during 2005⁻2015 were retrieved from the nationwide Netherlands cancer registry. A multivariate Cox regression model was created to predict overall survival for various treatments. Predictor selection was performed via the Akaike Information Criterion and a Delphi consensus among experts in palliative oesophagogastric cancer. Validation was performed according to a temporal internal-external scheme. The predictive quality was assessed with the concordance-index (c-index) and calibration. The model c-indices showed consistent discriminative ability during validation: 0.71 for oesophageal cancer and 0.68 for gastric cancer. The calibration showed an average slope of 1.0 and intercept of 0.0 for both tumour locations, indicating a close agreement between predicted and observed survival. With a fair c-index and good calibration, SOURCE provides a solid foundation for further investigation in clinical practice to determine its added value in shared decision making.
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Keywords: prediction model, oesophageal cancer, gastric cancer, metastasis, Cox regression, Delphi consensus, Oesophageal cancer, Prediction model, Metastasis, Gastric cancer, Oncology, Cancer Research, Journal Article
ISSN: 2072-6694
Publisher: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
Note: Funding Information: This work was supported by The Dutch Cancer Society, grant number UVA 2014-7000. Funding Information: Funding: This work was supported by The Dutch Cancer Society, grant number UVA 2014-7000. Funding Information: Conflicts of Interest: Dr. Ameen Abu-Hanna reports personal fees from ExpertDoc, outside the submitted work. Dr. Jaffer A. Ajani reports personal fees from Bayer, Five Prime Therapeutics, Genentech, Lilly/ImClone, Novartis, Roche/Genentech and Taiho Pharmaceutical. Dr. Jaffer A. Ajani reports grants from Amgen, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Delta-Fly Pharma, Gilead Sciences, Lilly/ImClone, MedImmune, Merck, Novartis, Roche/Genentech, Taiho Pharmaceutical, Takeda, other from Bayer, Five Prime Therapeutics, Novartis outside the submitted work. In addition, Dr. Jaffer A. Ajani has a patent Genentech, Roche, BMS, Taiho, MedImmune, Merck, Amgen and Lilly pending. Dr. Yung-Jue Bang reports other (consulting/advisory role) from AstraZeneca, Novartis, Genentech/Roche, MSD, Pfizer, Bayer, Eli Lilly, Merck Serano, FivePrime, Taiho, Ono, ADC Therapeutics, GreenCross, Samyang Biopharm, BeiGene and grants (to the institution for clinical trials) from AstraZeneca, Novartis, Genentech/Roche, MSD, Merck Serano, Bayer, GSK, Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Boeringer-Ingelheim, MacroGenics, Boston Biomedical, FivePrime, CKD Pharma, Ono, Otsuka, Taiho, Takeda, BeiGene, Hanmi, Green Cross, Curis, Daiichi Sankyo and Astellas, outside the submitted work. Dr. Narikazu Boku received a research grant from Taiho, Ono, Bristol Myers-Squibb and a honorarium from Taiho, Ono, Bristol Myers-Squibb, Chugai, Eli Lilly. Dr. Rosine Guimbaud reports other from Merck Serono, Roche, outside the submitted work. Dr. Florian Lordick reports personal fees from AstraZeneca, BioNTech AG, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Elsevier, Excerpta Medica, Lilly, Medscape, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Astellas Pharma, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Lilly, Merck Sharp & Dohme, grants from Bristol-Myers Squibb (Inst), other from Bristol-Myers Squibb and Merck Sharp & Dohme outside the submitted work. Dr. Hanneke W.M. van Laarhoven reports grants from Dutch Cancer Society (KWF), during the conduct of the study, personal fees from Bristol-Myers Squibb, Lilly/ImClone, Nordic Group, grants from Bayer Schering Pharma (Inst), Bristol-Myers Squibb (Inst), Celgene (Inst), Janssen-Cilag (Inst), Lilly (Inst), Nordic Group (Inst), Philips Healthcare (Inst), Roche (Inst), other from AstraZeneca, outside the submitted work. Dr. Martijn G.H. van Oijen reports grants from Bayer (Inst), Lilly (Inst), Merck Serono (Inst), Roche (Inst), outside the submitted work. All other authors declare no competing interests. The funders had no role in the design of the study, in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data, in the writing of the manuscript, or in the decision to publish the results. Publisher Copyright: © 2019 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
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