Scenarios for demand growth of metals in electricity generation technologies, cars and electronic appliances

Abstract

This study provides scenarios towards 2050 for the demand of five metals in electricity production, cars and electronic appliances. The metals considered are copper, tantalum, neodymium, cobalt and lithium. The study shows how highly technology-specific data on products and material flows can be used in integrated assessment models to asses global resource and metal demand. We use the Shared Socio-economic Pathways as implemented by the IMAGE integrated assessment model as a starting point. This allows us to translate information on the use of electronic appliances, cars and renewable energy technologies into quantitative data on metal flows, through application of metal content estimates in combination with a dynamic stock model. Results show that total demand for copper, neodymium and tantalum might increase by a factor of roughly 2 to 3.2, mostly as a result of population and GDP growth. The demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to increase much more, by a factor 10 to more than 20, as a result of future (hybrid) electric car purchases. This means that not just demographics, but also climate policies can strongly increase metal demand. This shows the importance of studying the issues of climate change and resource depletion together, in one modelling framework.