Abstract
Car traffic volumes continue to increase rapidly worldwide, leading to steadily rising levels of congestion and harmful emissions in many urbanised areas. Transport researchers have long been convinced of the power of pricing solutions to mitigate these problems. However, pricing initiatives have generally been confronted with low levels of public
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support, hampering implementation. The concept of Tradable Driving Credits (TDC) presents a promising and innovative pricing alternative, which can powerfully deliver a more efficient use of scarce road space while addressing some of the major objections usually raised in the case of conventional road pricing. This thesis explores the effects of a TDC instrument on car use from an individual perspective. First, a literature review presents an overview of empirical studies on personal travel-related tradable credit schemes carried out to date by discussing results as well as methodologies used. Further, three elements of TDC that make the instrument radically different from conventional road pricing are identified. Based on insights from the fields of behavioural economics and cognitive psychology, the review discusses how these elements might activate certain behavioural decision-making mechanisms. Second, a stated adaptation experiment was developed, using the activity-based approach, to anticipate the effects of a distance-based TDC scheme, with fixed prices, among frequent car commuters in the Netherlands. Results suggest a substantial car use reduction under the measure. Reduction levels in total number of kilometres collectively driven by the sample were 20.2% and 24.1% when the amount of free credits available for the sample represented a 17.5% and 32.2% reduction goal in kilometres travelled in two successive scenarios, respectively. Reductions were larger for those who experienced losses compared to those who experienced a gain in the base situation. Participants who worked more hours and who lived in non-urban areas showed lower car use reduction levels, whereas participants with middle incomes and who were 18-25 years old showed higher reduction levels. In cases of change, a travel mode change was the most preferred adaptation strategy, with the bike accounting for more than 40% of the changes. A mixed logit modelling framework was used to test the effects of a variety of activity/trip attributes, scenario attributes and individual characteristics on the preference for adaptation alternatives. Third, in a less elaborate stated adaptation experiment, the preferences of car owners in general, in both the Netherlands and China (Beijing), were surveyed. Willingness to change was considerably higher in Beijing than in the Netherlands and a substantial share of Beijing car owners indicated an increase in car use. Fourth, public support and it determinants were investigated in both the Netherlands and Beijing. The level of TDC acceptance was much higher in Beijing than in the Netherlands (67% and 22%, respectively). Having a higher income was positively related with acceptability in both contexts, as were expected effectiveness and fairness. The effect of perceived fairness was particularly strong in Beijing, showing that concerns about the fairness of the measure in the Beijing context of fierce competition for scarce road space is an important issue.
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