Corrigendum to “Long-term model-based projections of energy use and CO2 emissions from the global steel and cement industries” (Resour. Conserv. Recycl. (2016) 112 (15–36))

Abstract

The authors regret that, as a reader informed us, the presented historic data for steel production from scrap did not match the available data sources for the USA and Western Europe. A close inspection of the model code revealed that for the historic period 1971–2010, the market share for scrap was erroneously allocated twice (once forced by the scrap availability and a second time as part of the historic data on production shares). As a result, our model indicated a too high production share of steel from scrap in the year 2010, which also influenced the results for 2020 due to slow turnover of the production stock. The results for 2050 were not influenced by this error because there is a full capital stock turnover between 2010 and 2050. Since this error only influenced the market allocation of steel production technologies, and not the total level of steel production, correcting this error only lead to minor changes in the composition of final energy use and CO2 emissions. The regions with the largest adjustments are those with high shares of steel recycling, such as Western Europe and the USA. We have corrected this error, reran all scenarios with the updated model, and present below a corrected version of the text and figures that were influenced by this error. The main changes are related to Section 4.1.1 in the original paper. Instead of electric arc furnace (EAF) accounting for 75% and 66% of steel production in 2010 in respectively the USA and Western Europe, this now only represents around 50% and 42%. Future projections for EAF to account for 60% and 50% by 2050 are similar, but indicate an increase of scrap share rather than a decrease (as mentioned in the original paper). For India and China the share of EAF in total steel production now increases respectively from 10% to 30% and 10% to 50% between 2010 and 2050 (originally the 2010 values were 13% and 18%, respectively). Globally, the share of scrap-EAF increases from 23% in 2010 to over 40% by 2050 (instead of remaining stable around 40% in the entire period). There are only minor changes in the results for energy intensity per tonne steel, carbon intensity per tonne steel and final energy for steel production. These changes do not influence any trends and numbers discussed in the text, but we have included the updated figures in this addendum. The emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from steel production have changed slightly as result of correcting the error with scrap EAF. Global CO2 emissions are now 3215 megatonnes (Mt) CO2 per year (yr) in 2010 (was 3250 MtCO2/yr) and 3525 MtCO2/yr by 2020 (was 3350 MtCO2/yr) but remain around 2500 MtCO2/yr in 2050. Emissions in the USA and Western Europe are still decreasing from 110 Mt (was 150 Mt) to around 100 MtCO2/yr by 2050 and from 170 Mt (was 180 Mt)1