Abstract
As global energy consumption increased to 389 EJ by 2013, while the global energy-related CO2 emissions increased by over 50%, to 32.2 Gt in 2014. This growth is driven mostly by increased industrial production in developing countries. By now already two thirds of CO2 emissions budget for limiting global warming
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to 2°C by 2050 has already been used – in other words, we’ve already reached above 1°C warming in 2015. China’s energy consumption increased from 28.9 EJ in 1990 to 106 EJ in 2012, while the energy related CO2 emissions increased 4.2 times during the same period. Expectations are that China’s energy consumption will continue to grow. The potential of resource & energy efficiency improvement play a key role when tackling energy and environmental issues and related health impacts. Co-benefits of energy efficiency can provide a deeper understanding to overcome barriers in application of energy efficiency measures. However, current models are not capable of modelling the interaction of policy mixes and the co-benefits of energy efficiency improvement and emission mitigation on sub-sector level, which leads to the co-benefits of energy efficiency have not been systematically assessed in China. Based on this knowledge gaps, the objective of this dissertation is to assess the co-benefits of energy efficiency improvement and emission mitigation of CO2 and air pollutants in China, as well as the health impacts of pollution. For this purpose, a critical assessment about the advantages and weaknesses of current energy models for China are evaluated, including important co-benefits as reduced air pollutant emissions. Subsequently, a state-of-the art modelling framework is used that comprises a number of different methods and tools within the same platform (i.e. provincial energy conservation supply curves, Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies, ArcGIS, TM5, and Health Impact Assessment) to assess the potential for energy savings and emission mitigation of GHG and air pollution, as well as the health impacts of pollution arising from China’s industry. Results show that around one third of energy efficiency measures in China’s industry are not cost-effective, if only energy saving benefits would be considered. Energy efficiency measures have strong co-benefits for clean air and a reduction of public health damage. For example, the co-benefits of energy efficiency (including energy saving benefit, CO2 reduction benefit, and averted health benefit) are about two times higher than the costs of energy efficiency measures. Hence, energy-efficiency analyses should be extended by quantifying the co-benefits and investigating how these benefits improve the cost-effectiveness of the implemented energy efficiency measures from a social perspective, which could increase the opportunities for policy makers implement advanced measures. Finally, the model develop in this dissertation could also be adapted to perform the same analysis for other regions, to investigate the co-benefits of energy efficiency on energy consumption and emissions of GHGs and air pollutants.
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