Measurement and Modeling: Infectious Disease Modeling

Abstract

After some historical remarks about the development of mathematical theory for infectious disease dynamics we introduce a basic mathematical model for the spread of an infection with immunity. The concepts of the model are explained and the model equations are derived from first principles. Using this simple framework we derive central concepts of infectious disease modelling like the basic reproduction number, the endemic steady state and the critical vaccination coverage. We explain how the basic model can be extended in various directions to accommodate specific modelling questions and needs. Finally, we give some recent examples of the use of infectious disease modelling for public health policy making.