The effect of food consumption and production trends on energy, greenhouse gas emissions and land use

Abstract

In this report we assess the trends in food consumption and food-related environmental impacts (in terms of energy use, greenhouse gas emissions and land use) for three regions: Western Europe, the USA and China. The environmental impacts were determined by two methods: a product level analysis, in which the energy and emissions per kilogramme of 19 products was calculated; and a system level analysis, in which the energy use and emissions of each stage in the process chain (i.e. agriculture, fertilizer manufacture, food processing, transportation and packaging) was assessed for all food products combined. The energy use and GHG emissions for the entire food system (from cradle to factory gate), were estimated at 12.0 MJ/cap and 1.97 tCO2-eq/cap in Western Europe; 15.1 MJ/cap and 2.83 tCO2-eq/cap in the USA; and 4.1 MJ/cap and 0.88 tCO2-eq/cap in China for 2000. In the developed regions, per capita energy use has increased on average around 1% per year since 1970, whereas in China it has increased more than twice as rapidly. Per capita greenhouse gas emissions from the food system have declined slightly from 1970 levels in the USA and have remained unchanged in Western Europe, however they have increased at an average rate of 1.6% per year in China. The diverging trend in energy and GHG emissions can be traced to non-energy sources of emissions during agriculture. Stabilizing cattle populations and fertilizer application rates in Western Europe and the USA have held back the growth of agricultural emissions, which accounted for 60% of emissions from the food system in Western Europe in 2000. Non-grazing land use has also stabilized in Western Europe and the USA as yield improvements have kept pace with population increases and consumption pattern shifts. In China the rapid increase of meat consumption – from 9kg/cap in 1970 to 47 kg/cap in 2000 – has outweighed yield improvements, resulting in an increasing requirement for land. A significant share of the increasing land used for oil seed production is taking place abroad. Scenarios were developed for the future, revealing that, if the current trends continue, per capita energy use will increase by 30-40% between 2000 and 2050 in the developed regions and by over 200% in China. The increase is driven by transport and processing stages. The environmental impact of the food system can be reduced through consumption changes of high-impact foods, especially beef, which has a disproportionately large impact during agriculture. Furthermore, increased attention should be given to measures that reduce emissions during agriculture, because this stage is so large. Action should be taken to limit the growth of energy use and emissions in the transport and processing stages, as they are on track to increase strongly in the future.