Coping with Extreme Events: Institutional Flocking

Abstract

"Gulf Stream collapses (from a Dutch Newspaper, 21 October 2015) Recent measurements in the North Atlantic confirm that the thermohaline circulation driving the Gulf Stream has come to a stand. Oceanographic monitoring over the last 50 years already showed that the circulation was weakening. Under the influence of the large inflow of melting water in Northern Atlantic waters during last summer, it has now virtually stopped. Consequently, the KNMI and the RIVM estimate the average temperature to decrease by 3°C in the next 15 years. Summers will become cooler, and in winter, more snow and ice are to be expected. A researcher of the RIVM states: “In some ways, the rise in temperatures we experienced in the past decades will be reversed. But it is hard to predict what the further course of climate change will be. Our models are not validated for this type of abrupt changes.” Confronted with the recent events, experts are unable to estimate whether the circulation will re-establish itself in the near future." This hypothetical newspaper article sketches the situation, which forms the starting point of our essay. The situation is characterized by a predicted cooling of the climate in the years to come, but more importantly, by fundamental uncertainties on the further development of climate change. Particularly these uncertainties will impact political and societal responses. Several diverging scenarios exist for the 10 to 20 years following this THC collapse. An expansion of snow and ice covers in the Northern Atlantic region may lead to further decrease of temperatures. Changing circulations in oceans and atmosphere may cause the process of cooling to stop and give way to an accelerated process of climate heating. Other scenarios are also possible, in which the climate in relatively short periods of time oscillates between temperature rise and fall. Between episodes of cooling and heating, large amounts of melting water in the catchment areas of Meuse and Rhine may lead to flooding on scales unprecedented in the Dutch delta.