The Nature Of Prediction (and The Prediction Of Nature)

Abstract

Climate scenarios used by the climate panel IPPC reveal a possible future climate, which is not meant to be used as a climate prediction. However, such scenarios are misused frequently to determine policy and strategy, for instance infrastructure, water management and energy facilities. On 15 March 2010, Jason Frank, researcher at the Centrum Wiskunde $1 Informatica, was appointed full professor Dynamical Systems and Numerical Analysis at the University of Amsterdam. In his inaugural lecture, delivered on 21 April 2011, he gives a mathematical view on the predictability of natural systems, such as the climate system, and looks at the challenges, techniques and the role of computational methods.