Political death and survival in the Netherlands: Explaining resignations of individual cabinet members 1946 - 2010

Abstract

Resignation by individual cabinet ministers is a major political event. Little is known, however, about the incidence, the patterns and the causes of ministerial resignations. This article works towards a political survival model of individual (junior and senior) ministers in the Netherlands, a country characterized by proportional representation and coalition governments. It does so on the basis of data for all 719 cabinet members serving between 1946 and 2010. It first establishes the turnover rate of individual cabinet members. On average, 15.0 per cent of all ministers step down individually before the end of their term. A total of 5.3 per cent resigns for political reasons, such as an internal conflict within the cabinet or losing the confidence of the party or parliament. With regard to political resignations, the Balkenende-era was the most turbulent of Dutch post-war political history. We then tried to explain the resignation hazard for individual ministers on the basis of recent comparative research. The analysis shows that previous experience in parliament makes the largest difference. Ministers lacking such experience are currently 51 per cent less likely to survive in office.