Techno-economic analysis of natural gas combined cycles with post-combustion CO2 absorption, including a detailed evaluation of the development potential

Abstract

We performed a detailed analysis of the potential future costs and performance of post-combustion CO2 absorption in combination with a natural gas combined cycle (NGCC). After researching state-of-the-art technology, an Excel model was created to analyze possible developments in the performance of energy conversion, CO2 capture, and CO2 compression. The input variables for the three time frames we used were based on literature data, product information, expert opinions, and our own analysis. Using a natural gas price of 4.7 €/GJ, we calculated a potential decrease in the costs of electricity from 5.6 €ct/kWh in the short term to 4.8 €ct/kWh in the medium term and 4.5 €ct/kWh in the long term. The efficiency penalty is calculated to decline from 7.9%-points LHV in the short term to 4.9%-points and 3.7%-points in the medium and long terms, respectively. In combination with NGCC improvements, this may cause an improvement in the net efficiency, including CO2 capture, from 49% in the short term to 55% and 58% in the medium and long terms, respectively. The total capital costs including capital costs of the NGCC ware calculated to decline from 880 in the short term to 750 and 690 €/kW in the medium and long terms, respectively, with a decline in the incremental capital costs due to capture from 350 in the short term to 270 and 240 €/kW in the medium and long terms, respectively. Finally, the avoidance costs may decline from 45 €/tCO2 in the short term to 33 €/tCO2 in the medium term and 28 €/tCO2 in the long term.