Reconstruction of the carbon isotopic composition of methane over the last 50 years based on firn air measurements at 11 polar sites

Abstract

Methane is a strong greenhouse gas and large uncertainties exist concerning the future evolution of its atmospheric abundance. Analyzing methane atmospheric mixing and stable isotope ratios in air trapped in polar ice sheets helps reconstructing the evolution of its sources and sinks in the past. This is important to improve predictions of atmospheric CH4 mixing ratios in the future under the influence of a changing climate. We present an attempt to reconcile methane carbon isotope records from 11 firn sites from both Greenland and Antarctica to reconstruct a consistent 13C(CH4) history over the last 50 yr. In the firn, the atmospheric signal is altered mainly by diffusion and grav itation. These processes are taken into account by firn transport models. We show that isotope reconstructions from individual sites are not always mutually consistent among the different sites. Therefore we apply for the first time a multisite isotope inversion to reconstruct an atmospheric isotope history that is constrained by all individual sites, generating a multisite “best-estimate” scenario. This scenario is compared to ice core data, atmospheric air archive results and direct atmospheric monitoring data.