TransCom model simulations of CH4 and related species: linking transport, surface flux and chemical loss with CH4 variability in the troposphere and lower stratosphere

Abstract

A transport model intercomparison experiment (TransCom-CH4) has been designed to investigate the roles of surface emissions, transport and chemical loss in simulating the global methane distribution. Model simulations were conducted using twelve models and four model variants and results were archived for the period of 1990–2007. The transport and removal of six CH4 tracers with different emission scenarios were simulated, with net global emissions of 513 ± 9 and 514 ± 14 Tg CH4 yr−1 for the 1990s and 2000s, respectively. Additionally, sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) was simulated to check the interhemispheric transport, radon (222Rn) to check the subgrid scale transport, and methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3) to check the chemical removal by the tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH). The results are compared to monthly or annual mean time series of CH4, SF6 and CH3CCl3 measurements from 8 selected background sites, and to satellite observations of CH4 in the upper troposphere and stratosphere. Most models adequately capture the vertical gradients in the stratosphere, the average long-term trends, seasonal cycles, interannual variations and interhemispheric gradients at the surface sites for SF6, CH3CCl3 and CH4. The vertical gradients of all tracers between the surface and the upper troposphere are consistent within the models, revealing vertical transport differences between models. We find that the interhemispheric exchange rate (1.39 ± 0.18 yr) derived from SF6 is faster by about 11 % in the 2000s compared to the 1990s. Up to 60 % of the interannual variations in the forward CH4 simulations can be explained by accounting for the interannual variations in emissions from biomass burning and wetlands. We also show that the decadal average growth rate likely reached equilibrium in the early 2000s due to the flattening of anthropogenic emission growth since the late 1990s. The modeled CH4 budget is shown to depend strongly on the troposphere-stratosphere exchange rate and thus to the model's vertical grid structure and circulation in the lower stratosphere. The 15-model median CH4 and CH3CCl3 atmospheric lifetimes are estimated to be 9.99 ± 0.08 and 4.61 ± 0.13 yr, respectively, with little interannual variability due to transport and temperature as noted by the ± 1 σ.