The Quasta approach. Exploring new pathways to improve the use of knowledge in sustainability challenges

Abstract

>Sustainability demands a bringing together of various sources of knowledge and the normative aspects associated with these sources. Apart from researchers, stakeholders have come to be accepted as having valuable knowledge as well. As such, sustainability can be defined as a learning process, in which the following three groups interact and contribute: (1) researchers, (2) policy-makers and (3) stakeholders. In these confrontations, dialogues between these groups play an important role. This thesis aims to build on these trends by seeking to explore new methodological approaches that fit into the context of dialogues and learning processes. In practice, communication between the three groups is far from optimal and knowledge tends to be utilised ineffectively. Joint problem structuring is considered to be a crucial step in enabling effective dialogues between researchers, policy-makers and stakeholders. During the decision-making process, computer systems can help to exchange knowledge and facilitate communication. The first part of this research identifies the extent to which existing Decision Support Systems (DSSs) are helpful in meeting sustainability challenges. In this research, only DSSs have been investigated which are specifically designed for Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM). There appears to be a dichotomy between policy-oriented problem structuring tools and research-oriented impact assessment tools. In this respect, the tools do not bridge the gap between research and policy-making, but are rather part of the problem. The second part of this research (chapter 3 to 5) is aimed at exploring possibilities for a new type of computer-based tool. The formalism of Qualitative Probabilistic Networks (QPNs) was designed in the 1990s and can be used to analyse diagrams based on cause-and-effect relationships. These diagrams are known as Cognitive Maps, which have nodes representing variables and arrows representing causal relationships between these variables. For computer-supported reasoning with QPNs and Cognitive Maps, the Sign-Propagation algorithm can be used. Some serious problems with this algorithm have been revealed in this thesis. A rather simple and effective adaptation of the algorithm has been presented, which manages to fix the algorithmic flaws. A mainly theoretical study shows how QPN-based Cognitive Maps can formally be linked to advanced simulation models as used by researchers. The approach describes how QPN-based Cognitive Maps can be used to explore scenarios. In the final part, an approach using the techniques in an interactive computer tool has been tested in practice. This tool, called Quasta, is evaluated in four workshops in which various sustainability issues were discussed. The results indicate that Quasta (1) helps stakeholders to become aware of causal relationships; (2) helps in exploring possible scenarios; (3) identifies the need for further (quantitative) knowledge and; (4) has a low threshold for non-technicians. However, there were a number of factors that may have affected the success of applying Quasta. Nevertheless, the results are positive thus far as the workshop participants came up with a number of additional arguments supporting the usefulness of the tool.