Uncertainty management strategies: lessons from the regional implementation of the Water Framework Directive in the Netherlands

Abstract

Environmental managers have to deal with many uncertainties in carrying out their jobs. Literature describes several strategies that can be employed to manage these uncertainties, but this is done in a fragmented way. Therefore, this article aims to develop a comprehensive, coherent and empirically sound classification of uncertainty management strategies. The strategies mentioned in literature can be classified into four categories: ignoring uncertainty; knowledge generation; interaction and coping. A case study of the implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) by Dutch water boards was conducted to test whether the identified strategies are employed in practice. The WFD presents the water boards with uncertainties resulting from the requirements to improve water quality and ecology on one hand, while leaving room to adapt those requirements to regional interests, practices and institutions on the other. The case study confirms the empirical soundness of the classification by revealing that many of the uncertainty management strategies in literature are applied in practice as well. However, further research to test the empirical soundness of the classification in other fields of environmental management is required.