Competing expectations : the case of the hydrogen car

Abstract

Firms and governments can support only a limited number of emerging technologies. Some emerging technologies receive support for further development while others are discarded. But how do decision makers in firms and governments assess which of the options earns their support? Straightforward assessments of prices and performance levels can not be sufficient as emerging technologies are, by definition, in an early stage of development and have not reached their maximum levels of performance yet. It is therefore not so much of interest which of the options performs best at any point in time, but rather which of the options will eventually perform best in the future. As a consequence, this competition is based on expectations about future price and performance levels. It is studied how both the relevant decision makers and the technology developers deal with these expectations about the different options. The development of the hydrogen car takes up a central position in this thesis. The hydrogen car is one of the contenders in the race towards ‘the car of the future’. While the hydrogen car is indeed in competition with the other contenders there is also competition between different configurations of the hydrogen car. Expectations with regard to the different options are measured through patents, prototype cars, and statements from scientists and car manufacturers. From the research it shows that technology developers, the enactors, do not only try to shape positive expectations about their own option, but also negative expectations about their competitors. Technology selectors assess the credibility of the diverse expectations mainly on the basis of past progress and the possible paths forward towards higher levels of performance and lower prices. The roles of enactor and selector are interrelated and so is the process of enaction and selection. A main conclusion to this thesis is that selectors tend to narrow their portfolios in times of low general expectations. They do so not only because funds are limited, but also because a wide portfolio of options signals that none of the options is truly convincing Despite the fact that the competition between the different hydrogen technologies has resulted in a clearly favored design of the hydrogen car, the hydrogen car as such is currently in a phase of low expectations. To a large extent this is the result of overpromising by the hydrogen community in the past.