Abstract
Background
Central to this report is the question what effects government policy can have on
rates, transit times, and the reliability of freight transport. In this context, two
policy scenarios were examined: one scenario where all social costs that are
currently ‘external’, are passed on to freight transport, and one scenario where
the freight transport
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will grow substantially enough as to cause a significant
increase in congestion. Six modes of transport were examined, namely road
haulage, inland navigation, rail transport, airfreight, deep sea shipping, and short
sea shipping. Data is collected using a Delphi survey in which 68 experts
participated.
Autonomous expectations
Firstly we examined how rates, transit times and reliabilities will develop
autonomously between 2001 and 2010. Regarding rates, an increase is expected
for all modes. As the figures show, this means a discontinuity in the historical
developments in freight rates.
The respondents to the Delphi survey expect that rates will increase notably due
to increases in operating costs, such as tax increases (e.g., the German kilometer
tax for heavy freight vehicles), increased scarcities on infrastructure networks,
and rising labor costs. Yet, at the same time it is expected that between 2001 and
2010 carriers will improve productive efficiency and improve load factors, for
instance by an increased use of planning systems, reduced fuel use, and by
increased efforts to acquire cargo for return trips.
Regarding transit times, for all modes of transportation with the exception of
road haulage, a reduction is expected between now and 2010. The reliability of
freight transport, expressed in the number of overdue arrivals, is expected to
remain the same or even improve, except for airfreight and road haulage (see the
table below). Apparently, the latter modes will face increased congestion.
Expected effects of passing on of all external social costs (scenario 1)
If the social costs of freight transport are passed on to carriers as a ton-kilometer
charge, this will lead to a relatively high increase in costs. The experts expect
that by 2010 a part of the initial cost increase will be ‘evaporated’ by a change in
operational management of carriers.
The adaptations will vary between the transport modes. For all modes except for
short sea shipping, the ton-kilometer charge will reinforce the acquisition of
return cargo; improving load factors by co-operation between carriers in the
form of cargo exchange, is considered likely in inland navigation, rail transport,
airfreight, and short sea shipping. In all waterborne transport, it is expected that
shipowners will try to reduce fuel costs by slowing sailing speed. The tonkilometer
charge is eventually expected to cause a scaling-up of average firm
size in rail transport, short sea shipping, and deep sea shipping. Adaptations in
the size of transport means (vessels, vehicles, aircraft) are expected in inland
navigation, airfreight, rail transport, and short sea shipping. Finally, road
carriers, rail operators, airlines, and deep sea carriers will more often refuse
small or unprofitable shipments.
Expected effects of a strong increase in congestion (scenario 2)
The effects of a hypothesized strong increase in congestion are also researched.
The nature of congestion varies for each mode of transportation, however. For
instance, in rail transport and airfreight, queuing is only to a limited extent
possible, in contrast to the other modes, which is caused by the relatively rigid infrastructure capacity allocation systems employed. Yet, also in rail transport
and in airfreight often delays occur, but it appeared that scenarios in which
transit times initially increase by tens of percentages due to congestion are
unrealistic. Hence, the congestion scenario was disregarded for rail transport,
whereas an adapted scenario was constructed for airfreight. For the other
transport modes, a substantial increase in congestion by the end of 2001 was
assumed. In road transport, congestion is assumed to occur on line
infrastructure, whereas in the other modes congestion is notably assumed to
exist at ports and terminals.
It is expected that the extent to which the initial delays affect transit times in
2010 varies significantly between the modes. The disproportional increase in
transit times that is expected for inland navigation is in part explained by the fact
that multiple ports are visited. Yet, in short sea shipping this is also the case. For
all modes, a deterioration in reliability is expected. Also in this scenario,
different responses of transport companies are expected. In road haulage, inland
navigation, and short sea shipping, congestion will lead to a more intensive use
of planning systems, whereas more in advance planning with shippers is
considered likely in all modes except for airfreight. The use of larger transport
means is considered likely for all sectors but inland navigation. Changes in
departure times are only expected in road haulage, short sea shipping, and deep
sea shipping; in the other modes, flexibility in scheduling apparently is low. In
deep sea shipping and short sea shipping, more efforts to optimize load factors
are expected. Finally, in road haulage it is expected that route choice will be
adapted, whereas in airfreight, deep sea shipping, and in short sea shipping,
other (air)ports will be called at. This is mainly explained by the fact that the
scenarios assumed differences in the nature of congestion
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