Abstract
Chapter 2 presents a quantitative scenario study for the electricity and cogeneration sector in the Netherlands using MARKAL-NL-UU. This model is specifically developed for this research and is a dynamic bottom-up energy model with special CCS features generated with MARKAL. The focus of this chapter is on assessing how conditions
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essential for the introduction of CCS, occur at the same time. These conditions involve climate policy, the need for new power plants, cost-effectiveness of CCS technology compared to competing CO2 reduction options, and the availability of CO2 transport infrastructure and CO2 sinks. In chapter 3 cost reductions and performance improvements are identified for different power plants and CCS technologies. Since the development of these power plants is closely related to that of their counterparts without CCS, these are also included in this analysis. In addition, this chapter demonstrates how experience curve models with projections of future global power plant capacity can be combined to derive pathway dependent estimates of future plant costs and CO2 mitigation costs over time. Chapter 4 describes the design of a toolbox which allows assessments of the spatially explicit development of a CO2 infrastructure over time. This toolbox takes into account location, and time-path of individual infrastructural elements. It integrates ArcGIS, a geographic information system with spatial and routing functions, and MARKAL-NL-UU. Besides the electricity and cogeneration sector, also the CO2 intensive industry is included in the analysis. In chapter 5, the cost-effectiveness of applying CCS and storing the CO2 in a very large formation under the North Sea around 800 km away from the Netherlands, is assessed by making use of the toolbox developed in chapter 4. This toolbox takes into account the competition with CO2 storage in smaller onshore and nearby offshore formations, and the competition with other CO2 mitigation options. Furthermore, the influence of CO2 flows from neighbouring countries on the CO2 infrastructure in the Netherlands is analysed. In chapter 6, a general equilibrium model for global policy analysis applied by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), called WorldScan, is linked to MARKAL-NL-UU. The combined models are used to gain insights into impacts of a European or global emission trading system on the deployment of CCS in the Netherlands. Finally, in chapter 7, the objectives, approaches, discussions, and results of this thesis are summarised. This chapter also highlights the findings in this thesis with respect to the five content-related and modelling approach related research questions, and suggestions for further research
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