抄録
Research has shown that the industry sector plays an important role in the transition towards net zero or even negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2050, producing 18% of global GHG emissions. In this transition, decarbonization measures have to be applied to the industry sector. A widely discussed approach to
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accomplish this decarbonization is through the electrification of energy-intensive processes, both for final electricity demand or electricity demand for hydrogen and synthetic methane. However, the implementation of such measures might create challenges for the electricity system, as it could result in 1,900 TWh additional electricity demand, leading in high investment costs for grid expansion. On the other hand, the industry sector could provide flexibility to the electricity system through demand response measures or by shifting electricity demand for hydrogen and synthetic methane in power-to-hydrogen and power-to-gas storage technologies.
This research focuses on the Netherlands in 2050 as a case study. To analyze the effect of decarbonization of the Dutch industry sector on the electricity system, the power system simulation program PLEXOS was used. This model matches the electricity supply with electricity demand while minimizing total system costs. Six scenarios were developed, with three core scenarios varying in levels of decarbonization in the industry sector and three flexibility scenarios in which additional flexibility potential provided by the industry sector is included. For all scenarios the residual GHG emissions emitted by the industry sector are compensated with negative emissions by the electricity system. Furthermore, all scenarios were modeled with a fixed ratio of 70% IRES generation. Analyzing the results provided insights in possible future electricity generation portfolios, total system costs of the electricity system, and the impact of flexibility measures provided by the industry sector.
Under the assumptions of this research, the scenario with a target of 80% reduction in GHG emissions in the industry sector (compared to 1990) results in the lowest annual costs for the electricity system with 19 bn€/yr. This is because the costs of providing negative emissions by the electricity system for the residual 20% of GHG emissions is lower than additional costs for an increase in grid expansion due to higher electrification in the industry sector. It is, however, very challenging to provide negative emissions, provided by bio-energy with CCS or direct air capture capacity, while having a 70% intermittent renewable energy source generation share and limited biomass availability. As a result of these constraints unserved energy could lead up to an unacceptable share of 10% of total electricity demand. Flexibility measures, such as storing electricity in PtH or PtG technologies, are effective measures in decreasing this unserved energy, in which curtailment can be used to decrease peak residual load.
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