The Cold War in the Middle East: Then and Now

Abstract

The Middle East is undergoing a phase of crucial geopolitical and social transformations. Bottom-up uprisings are spreading from Lebanon to Algeria. A dangerous regional rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia is playing out throughout the region, involving actors supported by either party in proxy wars ranging from Yemen to Syria. The United States and Russia are both, albeit very differently, involved in local and regional politics, in ways that may also be exposing the European southern flank to risk. Washington, under the aegis of Donald J. Trump, is simultaneously providing support to traditional regional allies, such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, and retreating from the region, as illustrated, for example, by the decision to withdraw US forces from the border region between Turkey and Syria, de facto betraying the Kurdish forces that had been crucial in the fight against IS. And Moscow has been quick to seize upon the opportunity provided by the US’ moves and the local instability to portray itself as a steady, most reliable partner for the countries of the region. Is a new Cold War playing out in the Middle East? Not quite. Yet understanding how the original bipolar rivalry played out in the region is key, as many consequences of policies enacted by the superpowers and their allies during those four fateful decades are still with us today.