Ex-ante appraisal of cycling policies:towards a holistic framework for social cost-benefit analysis

Abstract

Cycling is gaining attention as a healthy, efficient and sustainable alternative to meet the mobility needs of urban areas. Many cities around the world are therefore increasing their funding to greatly expand their cycling infrastructure. Fast cycle routes (or bicycle highways) represent the prominent example of this development. However, the costs and the benefits of these projects have hardly been assessed in ex-ante appraisal, potentially leading to inefficient allocations of resources. This research combines the existing knowledge on cycling and transport evaluation to develop a holistic framework for social cost-benefit analysis and applies this on an illustrative case study. In line with previous preliminary findings, the results confirm that cycling projects are economically efficient. The results show (in line with previous studies) that cycling has indeed high social benefits. However, the current ability to make economic assessment are very much limited to the current methodologies which are not yet fully developed for cycling. Moreover, holistic approaches entail a high level of complexity in the definition of the scope and the identification of effects. In addition, evaluators need to make multiple assumptions as causality cannot be directly established. This is also part of the limitation of ex-ante appraisals and therefore the use of scenarios and conservative values appear to be ideal approach to incorporate uncertainty. The implications for environmental governance are that SCBA can be a useful tool for learning, especially if integrated early in the decision-making process. In spite of this, the risk is that the tool may be used politically to steer the attention to the assumptions and lose the focus on actual sustainability issues. The research concludes with a discussion on the applicability of the method, knowledge gaps and current opportunities and limitations.